Double-dip recession: The threat has receded but watch the blip

Stephen Archer offers his thoughts on whether a double-dip recession is on the cards, and the possible business and economic trends and impacts for 2011.
 
The double-dip question will not go away – there is a vast core of pessimists talking this up despite the number of good news items coming through; growth, stable unemployment, better US growth figures, strong global growth etc. But what considerations do the UK’s business owners and entrepreneurs need to have for 2011?
 
Consumer demand remains moderate and many are still reducing debt and those that have cut personal debt are being more cautious. Housing may stay in the doldrums but the DIY market will doubtless do well in 2011. The VAT rise is widely thought to be threatening our recovery but I do not see this happening. Many retailers will swallow the 2.5% and with the net price rise being 2% then many will not feel that the price change is very large. Think of a £100 invoice rising to £102. Food, fuel and raw material price rises are much more significant.

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