Current trends and the lessons of the past indicate that a 2.5% rise in VAT is almost inevitable after the general election no matter which party wins.
That's the claim of Paul Stainforth, tax expert at LexisNexis, who said history suggests that rises in VAT tend to be made at the start of a new Parliament regardless of whether there is a change of government.
VAT increased from 12.5 to 15% in the June 1979 Budget which followed the May 1979 election won by the Conservatives while an extension of the 25% rate to 'luxuries' was included in the first full Budget of the new Parliament in April 1975 following Labour's victory in October 1974. A 25% VAT rate for petrol was also included in the third Budget of 1974.
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